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Every economist thinks Australia will avoid a technical recession next week

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This article was sourced from Business Insider. Article by David Scutt.

Australia is likely to avoid a technical recession — defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth — when the ABS releases its December quarter GDP report next Wednesday, March 1.

All 25 economists polled by Bloomberg expect a positive growth quarter, forecasting a rebound following the shock 0.5% contraction – the largest since the GFC – in the September quarter.

The median estimate is centred around an increase in real GDP of 0.7% for the quarter, leaving the year-on-year growth rate at 1.9%.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is currently forecasting year-on-year growth of 2.0%.

Individual forecasts range between growth of 0.4% to as much as 1% for the quarter, the former coming from Westpac and Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, with the latter from economists at Societe Generale.

While everyone is predicting modest growth at this point, that view could shift significantly in either direction early next week with net exports, private inventories, balance of payments, company profits and government spending figures — all GDP inputs — scheduled for release on Monday and Tuesday.

Not to say that the same outcome will arrive, but these releases in the previous quarter saw expectations for growth shift substantially lower ahead of the GDP release, eventually culminating in the negative growth figure reported.
Read more at https://www.businessinsider.com.au/every-economist-thinks-australia-will-avoid-a-technical-recession-next-week-2017-2#G07kdWY8QVaCCHYm.99

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amy@bcradvisoryblog.com'
BCR team
The BCR Advisory team are a national represented firm with its main office located in Sydney. It is a boutique corporate advisory, recovery and insolvency firm that specialise in the SME market. The team’s reputation is built on their extensive experience within the industry as well as their fresh and innovative approach to problem solving for distressed business owners.Let us know what you thought about this article by leaving a comment below. Alternatively, you can get in touch with the BCR Advisory through our contact page.

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